And the arrow points to ... GO!

My head is spinning: We can't do it. Yes we can. No, we really can't. Oh, wait! We can! Nope, it's too much, we just can't do it.

BUT. I did meet with our lending lady, and she was very helpful: It's all a matter of where we put the money that we have. (She didn't tell me that, specifically; I figured it out while talking with her.) Paying off our current mortgage is not the best use of that money, since we need actual cash -- lots of actual cash -- to build the house (and even if we wait a year, we'll still need that money). It seems that we have enough money to do this, weirdly enough, unless something catastrophic happens, though the budget will be squeaky-tight when all is said and done and we're settled in with the new mortgage. It's the new mortgage that I've been worrying about mostly, and I'm not sure whether my change of heart regarding affordability is because I've loosened up on what I think is affordable, or whether the new mortgage really is not as huge as I'd been predicting. I know for sure that every time I visit the land, the serenity of that spot fills me and helps me realize that whatever stress the new mortgage causes will be largely offset by living in such a peaceful setting. And the enthusiasm of the entire building team doesn't hurt, either. But if anyone needs a technical writer or an editor, I'd certainly be up for some part-time work ...

So we're going forward, and we're building a passive house. We met a passel of Hammer & Hand guys at the land on Friday, and they staked out where the house will be. Skylar has a solar gain app on his phone, and he scanned our treeline with it, pointing out which trees have to go as Sam marked them with orange spray paint. I got there late (after taking the boys to school) and when I made my way down to the guys I learned I was standing in my future bedroom (on my future bed). I can't wait to be standing on the same spot, but inside the actual house!

Now that we all know we're going ahead, things are starting to move. Next week will bring well potability and flow tests and tree removal estimates. I think it's time for me to turn in the actual loan paperwork, as well, to make sure I don't hold up the process once things are really rolling.

Holy cow. Here we go ...

The rollercoaster ...

I should've known to not get so excited. Sigh. On Friday we met with our Hammer & Hand team, and Sam gave us the latest numbers: more exact costing, and then a separate column with what the costing will be if we actually want a passive house. I think we had unintentionally eliminated the thought of building a passive house because it's more expensive; the numbers we were aiming for previously were not passive house numbers (which we knew), though they were for a fairly energy-efficient home. Now, not only did those numbers go up with more precise costing, but Sam threw in passive house numbers, which of course are even higher. It's higher, but it's also worth it: Whatever extra we spend in building a passive house, we'll make up for in complete lack of energy costs. The break-even point is 15 years, which is quite a ways from now, but every day from that point on is a profitable day for us. And we would love love love to build a passive house.

A passive house has been our ideal all along -- though we weren't sure it was within our reach -- and seeing the possibility of a passive house in the house plans we're so excited about is tantalizing, to say the least. The problem is that now, as a passive house, it is once again out of reach. Most likely. It is conceivable that we could afford this house; the problem is that we wouldn't know that until it was built and our current house has sold. There are so many variables that affect whether we can afford this house: the actual cost of building (we have a lot of estimates), how long it takes to sell our current house, what our current house sells for, what our stock options will be worth when they're vested this summer, what kind of tax/government incentives we get for building a passive house, and so on. And none of this includes unexpected contingencies. Even if it all pans out, our budget would be tight. And we know that any sane person, looking at our budget and the cost of this house, would tell us we can't afford it. So we really can't build this house as a passive house. And we just don't want to build the house if it's not the right house.

Just in case, though, I'm going to meet with our lending lady and go over the numbers to see if I'm missing anything. I'm trying to be as detailed and realistic as possible, but I've never done this before.

We might try waiting a year and seeing how the budget shakes down. There are risks, such as that the all-time low construction-loan interest rate might rise. Other costs could go up or down. With the money we've put aside for building, we could pay off our current mortgage and save the interest we currently pay, and tuck all that away for building next year.

Too many variables. Too many unknowns. Argh.