The rollercoaster ...

I should've known to not get so excited. Sigh. On Friday we met with our Hammer & Hand team, and Sam gave us the latest numbers: more exact costing, and then a separate column with what the costing will be if we actually want a passive house. I think we had unintentionally eliminated the thought of building a passive house because it's more expensive; the numbers we were aiming for previously were not passive house numbers (which we knew), though they were for a fairly energy-efficient home. Now, not only did those numbers go up with more precise costing, but Sam threw in passive house numbers, which of course are even higher. It's higher, but it's also worth it: Whatever extra we spend in building a passive house, we'll make up for in complete lack of energy costs. The break-even point is 15 years, which is quite a ways from now, but every day from that point on is a profitable day for us. And we would love love love to build a passive house.

A passive house has been our ideal all along -- though we weren't sure it was within our reach -- and seeing the possibility of a passive house in the house plans we're so excited about is tantalizing, to say the least. The problem is that now, as a passive house, it is once again out of reach. Most likely. It is conceivable that we could afford this house; the problem is that we wouldn't know that until it was built and our current house has sold. There are so many variables that affect whether we can afford this house: the actual cost of building (we have a lot of estimates), how long it takes to sell our current house, what our current house sells for, what our stock options will be worth when they're vested this summer, what kind of tax/government incentives we get for building a passive house, and so on. And none of this includes unexpected contingencies. Even if it all pans out, our budget would be tight. And we know that any sane person, looking at our budget and the cost of this house, would tell us we can't afford it. So we really can't build this house as a passive house. And we just don't want to build the house if it's not the right house.

Just in case, though, I'm going to meet with our lending lady and go over the numbers to see if I'm missing anything. I'm trying to be as detailed and realistic as possible, but I've never done this before.

We might try waiting a year and seeing how the budget shakes down. There are risks, such as that the all-time low construction-loan interest rate might rise. Other costs could go up or down. With the money we've put aside for building, we could pay off our current mortgage and save the interest we currently pay, and tuck all that away for building next year.

Too many variables. Too many unknowns. Argh.